Tomorrow’s Chip Industry: Threats, Opportunities and Strategy Framework

Abstract

Few industries are as volatile as the chip industry. The rather short history of the industry has witnessed all types of dramatic cyclical swings and disruptions, from the technological to the geo-political. Technology drove the industry from the simple “few transistors on a silicon wafer” state to the multi-million transistors on the same silicon wafer profile. And from simple transistor placement to Lith photography. Geo politics saw political leaders flying all the way around the world in order to ascertain access to supplies and declare readiness to pursue hostilities in order to defend these supplies. Yet all of that will most likely pale against potential events of the coming decade.  The future state of technologies, the evolving forces of data sciences, and the unraveling currents of geopolitics will all induce grass root change. A blend of these disruptive forces will ex-pose the chip industry to genuine threats and, very likely, a few opportunities. And this will be the focus of the following article. A brief history of the chip industry will provide an introduction. An analysis of the prospective threat from never heard of technologies and heavy R & D investment to high industry concentration and distinctive pattern of rivalry follows. Opportunities will also be there, some in industry product competencies and others in economic value added. A conclusion will project a possible future scenario, or hypothesis, of the chip industry.